An Organization At The Crossroads
Following another loss Sunday in Philadelphia, the Browns are headed home to face the Bengals amidst an organizational crisis as the team continues to implode in agonizing fashion.
To say this season has not gone the direction the Browns' top brass and fans expected would be the understatement of the year. Injuries have ravaged the roster going back to the preseason and haven't slowed as the season has progressed. The defense has regressed beyond reasonable expectations, comfortably resting in the bottom half of the league in most notable categories. The offensive line ranks nearly dead last in the league in true pass-set win rate, PFF grading, and quick-pressure rate.
The Browns' receivers lead the NFL in drops. The Browns lead the NFL in sacks allowed. The team has been assessed the 2nd most penalties in the league with the 8th most yardage lost. And at the epicenter of it all is beleaguered quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Watson's deterioration from being a top-five NFL quarterback in Houston, as recently as 2020, to assuming the title of worst starting quarterback in the NFL after six weeks of the 2024 season has been both incredible and complete in its scope. In three seasons in Cleveland, Watson has only ever shown occasional flashes of the ability which fooled Jimmy Haslam into approving a fully guaranteed 230 million dollar contract in 2022.
However, this season he has taken his game to new lows, ranking dead last among quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 snaps taken in Total EPA, Adjusted EPA, and QBR. He's also on pace to break the single season record for sacks taken and lowest total EPA. He appears to be a shadow of the quarterback that led the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt just four seasons ago.
In any normal setting, quarterback play of this caliber on a team coming into the season with Super Bowl aspirations would have warranted a quarterback switch weeks ago, particularly one with a backup quarterback as capable as Jameis Winston. The Browns to this point have refused to take this step, a decision which is rightfully drawing national media attention as analysts correctly assess the situation as untenable and headed toward a full scale locker room check-out.
This, of course, is not a normal setting. Not a team with Haslam as the owner, and certainly not when you have a quarterback with a fully guaranteed quarter-billion dollar contract.
The situation has brought to bear questions of organizational structure, influence, and power starting with Stefanski and ending with Haslam. Stefanski has been peppered by local media with questions about a quarterback change since last Sunday evening and has been consistent with his answer, up to and including after yesterday’s loss to the Eagles :
Stefanski reiterated once again today that Watson “gives the team the best chance to win” during his usual presser.
Given that the product on the field has been indefensible, members of the media have started to ask the obvious question: Does Stefanski even have the authority to bench Watson in the face of likely Ownership backlash? And as Andrew wrote Friday - How much does it matter? Finding one specific person in Berea to blame for the decision to continue to start Deshaun Watson grows more meaningless by the snap. At this juncture no one - ownership, the front office, or offensive coaches - has clean hands in this.
As national media intensifies its spotlight on the Browns decision to continue to start Watson, its worth considering in earnest what that would entail and what consequences the organization could suffer if the team continues its current trajectory. With 3 more games to play prior to the trade deadline against the Bengals, Ravens and Chargers, there is no reason to project this iteration of Browns to be sitting any better than 1-8.
By this point Watson will have started three straight home games in what would be the most toxic environments this stadium has seen since fans cheered wildly as Tim Couch writhed on the field after injuring his shoulder. National and local media will have played their part in stoking the fires in Berea and the general population of Cleveland alike.
To gain a sense of what the Browns are headed towards, take a moment to consider their performance to date, then add this for context:
The Browns have had the easiest stretch of opponents in the NFL through week 6 and are sitting at 1-5 with an offense and quarterback on their way to record setting seasons of the worst kind.
For fans that have been here for the long haul, a familiar feeling begins to set in as hard earned past experience starts whispering in their ears about where this is heading. An attempt at a quick rebuild, beginning with trades of aging high-dollar vets. Possibilities would include Joel Bitonio, Wyatt Teller, Jack Conklin, Za’Darius Smith, and Amari Cooper.
I don’t think I need to describe the effect that would have on what is already one of the worst offenses fielded in decades. Cleveland’s collective fingers would remain crossed that Garrett remains untouchable in those trade discussions but other teams will surely be asking.
A clean sweep of the front office and coaching staff on “Black Monday” would likely be a given. Unfortunately you can't fire Jimmy, so he'll fire everyone else and wonder why this keeps happening. Worse yet, if Haslam refuses to accept the Watson experiment as a mistake to the point where the entire current regime is dismissed, it could mean he continues to back Watson beyond 2024, which would doom the next regime and fans to additional helpings of what they are being served on Sundays.
Simply put, the Browns organization is at a crossroads. Right here, and right now, they have choices to make that will impact the team for years to come, and I’ll plant my flag in plain view - The Browns must look themselves in the mirror and accept the reality of this situation - the Watson they thought they traded for never arrived, and he never will.
The contract is sunk cost, and continuing to play him in the face of the mountain of evidence that says Watson is hurting this team in innumerable ways is both nonsensical and infuriating to fans that continue to put their hard earned money and precious time into this team. Its time to swallow your pride as an organization and do something about it.
Sit Deshaun Watson, rally the troops, and give fans a fighting chance to enjoy Sundays again.
Winston should be given the opportunity to run this offense and has an infectious attitude that would change the (currently terrible) body language of the players around him. As bleak as things look now, with just neutral quarterback play and the emotional and practical boost Nick Chubb coming back will provide, upcoming games against the Chargers, Saints, Broncos, and Steelers are within reach.
This team does not have to continue walking this path of self destruction. It’s a choice. We know where this road leads. I can only hope they reverse course and start making better choices before its too late, not for this season, which is lost already, but for this team’s future.
My theory is they’re tanking to get Arch. They’re going to ride out the Watson contract, which will most assuredly get them the draft position/capital to draft him. Haslam has very close ties to the Manning family and has been courting Peyton to join the organization for years. If Barry and Stefanski tow the company line they will get through this. In the meantime… going to be two years of bad football for Browns fans… Buckle up.
Your scenario makes sense.
But I also think that within the team, the stakes are probably different.
They are firing Berry and Stefanski because they have the moral authority to do so for their failures that brought us to this point.
They also get a high draft pick.
They trust the new HC\GM to elect their quarterback. ( Ward,Shedeur,Nuss,Milroe )
It's my guess, but that's the way I see it.