The Opening Drive 10/25: Patriots Will Look To Move Pocket and Utilize Boot Concepts Against Browns Defense
The Browns have struggled with the bootleg game in recent weeks, and it's time for Gabriel to open things up on offense.
The Patriots aim to extend their current winning streak to five games—the longest in the NFL—as they return to Gillette Stadium to face the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. New England has won three consecutive road games, including one in Buffalo. Their last loss occurred in week three against the Steelers, where they were defeated 21-14 at home.
This will be the first matchup between the Browns and Patriots since 2022, but there is significant familiarity between the two teams. During his year away from head coaching, Mike Vrabel worked as a coaching and personnel consultant to Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski in the 2024 season.
The Browns’ defense enters this game ranked fifth in DVOA, third in EPA, fourth in team pressure rate, and leads the league in both pass-rush win rate and run-stop win rate.
Second-year quarterback Drake Maye has been impressive, but facing the Browns will likely be his toughest challenge to date. Maye is emerging as a top-five quarterback, currently ranking fourth in total QBR (76.8) and leading the league in expected points added (EPA) per drop-back (+0.35). However, the defenses he has encountered so far rank 23rd, 31st, 25th, 17th, 22nd, 21st, and 28th in total EPA.
“They’re playing at a high level, they’re playing with a lot of confidence. It’s a lot of speed, a lot of disruption,” Vrabel said of the Browns defense. “They don’t give you a whole lot of time to make decisions. And then there’s enough change-ups in there that you just have to be good. You have to be sound, can’t hold on to the ball. Coverage is sticky, and the linebackers are fast.”
Interesting to hear Vrabel use the verbiage “change-ups” when talking about Schwartz’s defense. Schwartz loves his baseball analogies, and he has spoken of his secondary coverages and disguised looks as “change-ups” during his time in Cleveland—a bit of that familiarity sneaking through.
The question is how the Patriots plan to exploit the Browns’ defense.
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Opening Drive 10/24: Finishing Mailbag and Friday Special Teams Analysis
Opening Drive 10/23: Vrabel’s Familiarity, Things I Think I Know
Patriots Will Look To Move The Pocket and Use The Boot Game
The Patriots, like every other opponent the Browns have faced, will prioritize getting the ball out of Maye’s hands quickly. Aware of this strategy, the Browns will try to complicate Maye’s view of his primary read. This approach has been effective against quarterbacks like Joe Burrow in the past, but they had less success against Aaron Rodgers.
Maye is a talented athlete, and the Patriots are likely to implement a strategic approach that includes bootlegs and keepers. The Browns’ defense has struggled against bootleg concepts, having allowed big plays to the Vikings, Steelers, and Dolphins. In fact, the Browns currently rank 24th in expected points added (EPA) per play against bootlegs(+.30).
The approach taken by Schwartz and the Browns’ defense focuses on aggressively getting upfield to disrupt the pocket, but this strategy can leave them vulnerable to bootleg plays. Opposing teams will always seek ways to neutralize Myles Garrett and the pass rush, and moving the pocket is one effective method to achieve that.
Last week, the Browns faced the Dolphins and were initially caught off guard by a bootleg concept early in the game. However, they made some adjustments. By blitzing a safety from the edge on the bootleg side, they quickly put Tua in conflict, forcing him to release the ball before the play could fully develop.
Still, with Maye’s ability to throw on the run with precision, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the Patriots will likely test the Browns with some boot concepts and look to move the pocket to avoid early pressures.
Patriots Defensive Gameplan - Same Story Here
The book is out on the Browns’ offense. You have to stop the run game and Quinshon Judkins, who ranks third in the league in rushing yards after contact (420) and has forced 21 missed tackles (tied for eighth among RBs). The Patriots are excellent against the run and will look to shut it down early.
New England’s defensive issues have come in the downfield passing game, which ironically is what you want to force the Browns to try to do. Gabriel has struggled to push the ball downfield, and when he has, it hasn’t been good, ranking last among qualified quarterbacks in average air yards per attempt (5.9). Gabriel has completed just 11 of his 31 throws over 10 air yards, the worst completion rate in the league (35.5%).
New England knows this and will be ready to load up on the run game, play-action to the tight ends, and the short passing game. The Browns will have to find a way to take some shots down the field in this one. Tendency-breaking wrinkles from Stefanski will be critical, but Gabriel will need to take a step forward in his development this week and open it up.
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All the talk of bootlegs is giving me flashbacks to the 2012 browns Redskins game. Cousins came in for an injured RG3 and they must have ran 14 bootlegs. We just couldn't stop it. Let's no relive that nightmare on Sunday...