The Opening Drive 10/2: Carson Schwesinger Recognition and Data Roundup
The Browns rookie is leading the Rookie DPOY conversations and rightfully so. Plus, some NFL data for your morning.
The Cleveland Browns haven’t had the smoothest four week stretch in the NFL but there have been plenty of bright spots amidst the frustration. Among those bright spots is the performance of the rookie class. This class can be catapult into massive league-wide discussion if Dillon Gabriel maximizes his looming opportunity this weekend, but for now, the depth of class is strong enough to be noticed. Among those shining brightest is linebacker Carson Schwesinger. So bright, in fact, that when Pro Football Focus put out their rankings for best of the NFL through four weeks, he is leading the Defensive Rookie of the Year standings. Here is what they had to say about the UCLA-product.
To be able to accomplish that task in both run and pass phases that quickly, against some very good NFL offense, is quite meaningful for Schwesinger. The Lions and Ravens present some of the toughest run/pass conflicts in the entire league, and the Packers are right up there with Matt LaFleur’s creativity. Not one easy offense to defend on that entire group and Schwesinger has performed above and beyond expectation. The film matches the grades.
It’s unlikely he will be able to maintain the lead for the award over edge rushers like Abdul Carter, who have an easier pathway to statistical recognition, but if he continues to be among the highest graded in both phases across the league, stacks up tackles, and maintains his health, he will be right in the mix. The Browns have a pillar of their defense for the future with Schwesinger. The only thing I hope is that Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah can return to form one of the league’s best tandems.
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Opening Drive 10/1: QB Decision Comes Down to Protecting the Ball
Opening Drive 9/30: Jim Schwartz and Browns Defense’s Changeup
It’s the quarter season mark so whenever this hits I like to see where the Browns are stacking up across the league with data. This can tell us how they prefer to play the game in many facets and helps us understand their performance and more. These are the ones that stood out for me the most from the usual outpouring on social media.
First we look at quarterback performance when accounting for things out of their control. Check the adjustments here and notice that Joe Flacco goes from being the worst in the league to something more respectable. This is a great illustration to show how the team around him has also failed him and a good cross reference for the results we see from Dillon Gabriel in the coming weeks.
Next we get into the play-calling tendencies for the Browns and from what alignments they are doing so. The Browns are keeping their balance when aligned under-center but they are once again heavily pass-tilted when in the gun. This might change with Gabriel at the helm, but the trend aligns with the previous three years of data. They have to find more success in gun run and then pair meaningful play-action off of it.
The vaunted NFL team tiers. As one would expect the defense EPA is strong, although not as strong as you would hope considering their results, but the Browns lack of turnover generation is to blame for that. They dominate success rate but not EPA. Still strong, though. The offense is down there with the Bengals and Titans for worst in the NFL and we know it is driven by their consistent failures in pass completion rates and turnovers.
These issues in success for the offense are driving their repeated failures in staying on the field outside of Week 1. They are 30th in the league, ahead of you-know-who, for the percentage of drives that result in either a new set of downs or a successful outcome. This has to rectify quickly.
As has been discussed here plenty, here is a rendering of how poor the Browns offensive line has been in both phases — among the worst in the NFL in pass protection and sliding down in run blocking. Then cross compare it to the way the Browns defensive line has performed so far. If the offensive line can just become respectable in the next stretch of games they can win each game on the schedule.
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