The Opening Drive 7/1: Harold Fannin is Back, and the NFL's Trend on 4th Down Aggression

Will Todd Monken be as aggressive on 4th down as his predecessor?

Jul 01, 2026

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BEREA, OHIO - APRIL 21: Harold Fannin Jr. #44 of the Cleveland Browns runs a drill during a voluntary veteran minicamp at CrossCountry Mortgage Campus on April 21, 2026 in Berea, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)

Harold Fannin Jr. was back running routes this week, and for a Browns offense that needs him to be at his best this fall, that is noteworthy. Fannin sat out the entirety of OTAs and mandatory minicamp with what the team never formally detailed beyond “undisclosed,” though the more plausible explanation traces back to the groin injury that knocked him out of the Browns Week 17 game against the Steelers, and the regular-season finale in Cincinnati. There was no brace, no wrap, no hitch in his gait on the sideline during the spring, just being kept off the field as a precaution while the calendar still had plenty of runway before games mattered. Seeing him working through routes now, ahead of a training camp opening late July tracks with what Todd Monken has been preaching all along. No reason to rush, but also it’s nice to see him getting back to his usual self.

What makes his return to the field worth tracking beyond the injury update is the timing relative to everything else in motion around him. Todd Monken is building his first offense as an NFL head coach, the quarterback competition between Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson remains genuinely open, and the receiver room is still sorting out its pecking order and fit in the scheme. A tight end who can win from multiple alignments - the kind of hybrid H-back/big slot role that made his rookie season so special - gives Monken a stable, high-floor answer regardless of who wins the quarterback job. Route-running was always the carrying trait in his scouting profile, the ability to manipulate leverage and change tempo to consistently find grass. Watching him rebuild that timing now and work through the new scheme, rather than in the acclimation period of camp itself, matters more than the highlight value of any one rep in a shorts-and-shells setting.

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BEREA, OHIO - JUNE 10: Head coach Todd Monken of the Cleveland Browns watches a drill during the Cleveland Browns Mandatory Minicamp at CrossCountry Mortgage Campus on June 10, 2026 in Berea, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

The second thread worth pulling this offseason has nothing to do with personnel and everything to do with philosophy, and it’s a conversation the Browns have been at the center of for six years running. Fourth-down aggression across the NFL isn’t a fringe analytics talking point anymore - it’s the operating premise. League-wide, teams went for it 766 times in 2024 and converted at 57%, a rate 60% higher on a per-game basis than a decade earlier, and the trend hasn’t leveled off since. Those numbers are getting even more aggressive in riskier portions of the field.

NFL teams going for it on 4th-and-1 from their own 40 or deeper — offensive attempts only, Q1-Q3, within two scores:

2017: 2
2018: 6
2019: 11
2020: 17
2021: 24
2022: 29
2023: 16
2024: 37
2025: 38

From 2 to 38. That’s 19 times as many attempts as in 2017.

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