The Opening Drive 9/20: How the Browns Match-Up with Packers' Trend-Breaking Downfield Passing Attack
The Packers aggressive passing attack and Schwartz's propensity to play single high man-to-man set up an intriguing matchup.
Well, we’re back for a Saturday edition of The Opening Drive, and we are taking a closer look at Sunday’s matchup. In the NFL, opting to use one of your four downs for a low-percentage deep shot can significantly diminish your chances of converting a first down. Recently, this trend has led to a decline in the popularity of the deep passing game. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles won the Super Bowl last year, and they are averaging 5.6 intended air yards and four completed air yards per passing play, placing them just above Bo Nix, who is known for taking the check down at a high rate.
In Thursday Night Football's matchup, Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen managed to average just 1.5 Air Yards per completion. Allen is one of the best quarterbacks we have in our game, yet, similar to Hurts, he has played it safe instead.
The short passing game has proven effective for numerous teams, allowing them to consistently connect a series of short passes if they maintain a completion rate of 70% or higher. The reasoning is sound for teams taking what the defense is giving them.
The two-high safety alignment that has swept across the NFL complicates deep plays while opening up opportunities for shorter completions. The essence of the two-high shells is to force teams into running more plays to get the ball down the field. If a team manages to complete 70% of their passes and works the ball methodically down the field, each play carries the risk of a drop, a sack, a penalty, or, better yet, for the defense, a turnover. The contemporary defenses adopting this approach rely on the mindset that if they can force the opposing offense into a mistake during the longer, drawn-out drive down the field, this strategy has proven effective for many teams.
However, the Packers approach offense differently than most. Jordan Love is at the top of the league, averaging 12.5 intended air yards per attempt and 8.6 air yards per completion. Lamar Jackson stands out as the next quarterback on the list, boasting ten intended air yards and an impressive 8.2 actual air yards per attempt. The Packers stay pushing the ball down the field, looking for the explosive play.
To effectively utilize the check down strategy, you must complete around 70% of your passes. However, a single deep throw can propel you into scoring territory and frequently lead to points on the board. According to FTN, Jordan Love has thrown 16 deep passes this season, completing seven of them (43.8%) for a total of 228 yards. Despite Love's completion percentage on those throws not being impressive, he's managing to complete more than a third of them, with each completion averaging an impressive 33 yards.
The Packers' strategy offers a distinct benefit, as the entire league has now adapted to counter underneath throws with effective tackling. Many teams are generally okay with allowing completions underneath, provided they can minimize the impact.. However, there is often a trade-off where tackling skills tend to decrease as coverage skills increase, as seen with the Browns' very own Denzel Ward through two weeks this season. Defenses are designed to push forward and make tackles.
Here is the rub, though. The Browns are not one of the teams that have adopted the cover-two shell, keep everything in front of them approach. They play more single high safety man-to-man than any other team in the league. When Love faces a team in man coverage or against a single high safety, he consistently opts for a deep shot. He has been highly aggressive in taking his chances down the field, regardless of his position on the field, and so far, they have found success in doing so.
The Packers' deep attack has shown promise thus far, and there is potential for improvement, as they have yet to get their rookie speedster Matthew Golden going.
Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz was asked about the Packers' aggressive passing attack on Friday.
"I mean, that's just built into what they do. I mean, when it's all said and done, on first and second down they're a run play action team. And when they play action, they want to take shots. And you look at (Jordan) Love and look at his completion percentage, and it's not eye popping the way some guys are. A lot of guys, 75%, 70%. And it's not that he's an inaccurate passer, it's reflective of how many deep shots he takes. And they're very surgical with those. They use their run to set up that stuff. It doesn't work if you're not a good running offense, and it goes back to Jacobs. Their run creates their opportunities to push the ball down the field on those first and second downs. And that's just sort of built into the way they do things."
Schwartz isn't likely to back off from his defensive approach, which relies on man-to-man coverage holding up long enough for the Browns' pass rush to create havoc in the backfield.
The Browns will have to do a good job slowing down Josh Jacobs and create a lot of pressure around Love. They trust their cornerbacks, Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome, to hold up in coverage, and the Packers are going to take their shots down the field, which makes for a highly intriguing matchup.
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Ticker Kraft Update:
Kraft just had an outstanding performance against the Commanders, recording six receptions for 124 yards, marking a personal best and his first time surpassing the 100-yard mark. In Week 1, he snagged a touchdown pass against the Lions, making him one of only three tight ends to find the end zone in both games this season, joining Zach Ertz of the Commanders and Davis Allen of the Rams.
A third-round selection in 2023 from South Dakota State, Kraft ascended from 31 receptions for 377 yards and two touchdowns in his rookie campaign to 50 catches for 707 yards and seven touchdowns his second year. His strong early-season showing so far in 2025 points at yet another significant improvement this season.
Kraft was absent from practice on Friday, leaving his availability for the upcoming Week 3 clash against the Cleveland Browns uncertain, as reported by coach Matt LaFleur. Kraft sustained a left knee injury during Thursday's practice and has been officially marked as questionable on the team's injury report.
Kraft's knee injury shouldn't sideline him for an extended period. LaFleur referred to it as a "little tweak" and mentioned on Friday that it's improbable Kraft will be put on injured reserve. Kraft faces the possibility of being sidelined for at least one week of competition.
LaFleur said the decision on whether the third-year tight end will play against the Browns will be made at game time on Sunday.
Browns Cornerback Depth:
The Browns found themselves in a vulnerable position last week when Ward missed most of the second half with cramping. It forced second-year player Cameron Mitchell into the game, and the Ravens picked on him to the tune of three touchdown passes against.
Myles Harden has taken on the nickel role and been better than Micthell, acquitting himself well at times over the first two weeks. The Browns have elected to use Delpit in slot coverage when they have an additional safety on the field.
Schwartz was asked about Mitchell's performance last week during his presser on Friday.
"Well, when we don't have Denzel, obviously it's a difference for us. But our guys that step in the game have to be trusted to execute the scheme. He had a rough day. He's played good football for us in the past. He had a rough day in this game and needs to bounce back from that...You know, a lot of DBs, it's technique, awareness and confidence. And I think that there were a couple plays that he was behind and could have recognized a little bit quicker. So, I think that's part of it. And that confidence means an awful lot. The thing is that it's life in the big city for a corner, right? If a corner makes a mistake, everybody in the stadium knows, everybody watching the TV knows. And that's something you have to live with. If a defensive tackle makes those same three mistakes, whether it's technique, awareness, anything else, it might go unnoticed, and nobody really knows. But those guys live with that every day. They're out on an island, everybody can see. I mean, like, you're a kicker, everybody knows if you missed a kick or not. You're a corner, everybody knows if you accomplished your coverage or not. Cornerbacks live in that spotlight, so we got to keep our confidence. We can't let one bad day roll into two, roll into three, and he needs to bounce back from that."
Having both Ward and Greg Newsome on the field this week will be critical. Mitchell has to improve when he is called on, or the Browns should look at giving him opportunities to some of their younger cornerbacks, like UDFA Dom Jones, who initially made the 53-man roster and is now on the practice squad. Schwartz said they like having Myles Harden focusing on just the nickel role, which means any injury or time missed by Ward or Newsome will force Mitchell into coverage again.
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